🤓

The Complete Beginner's Guide

From Zero to Trading Prediction Markets in Minutes

No crypto experience required. We'll walk you through everything.

1 🎯 What is GuessMarket?

💡 Prediction Markets Explained (Super Simple Version)

Imagine being able to bet on whether something will happen in the future - like whether your favorite team will win, whether Bitcoin will hit a certain price, or whether it will rain tomorrow.

GuessMarket lets you do exactly that, but with cryptocurrency. You buy "YES" or "NO" Guess Units on questions, and if you're right, you win money!

🌟 Why GuessMarket is Different

  • No account needed - Just connect your wallet and trade
  • You're in control - Your money stays in your wallet until you trade
  • Anyone can create markets - Don't see a question you want to bet on? Create it yourself!
  • Works globally - No geographic restrictions
  • Instant payouts - When you win, claim immediately

How It Works In 4 Steps:

💰 Fund Wallet
→
🔎 Find Market
→
📈 Buy YES/NO
→
🎉 Win & Claim!

💰 Example: How You Make Money

Let's say there's a market asking: "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31st?"

The current prices are: YES: 60% | NO: 40%

This means the crowd thinks there's a 60% chance Bitcoin will hit $100K.

The key insight: The lower the price when you buy, the more you can win!

  • Buying YES at 60% - You think it's MORE likely than 60%. If you're right, you profit from everyone who bet NO.
  • Buying NO at 40% - You think it's LESS likely than 60%. If you're right, you profit from everyone who bet YES.

How winnings work: When the market resolves, all the money from losing bets gets split among the winners proportionally. The more Guess Units you hold and the fewer other winners there are, the bigger your share of the pot!

💡 Simple rule: If you think something is more likely than the current price suggests, buy that side. If the price is 30% but you think it's really a 70% chance, that's a great buying opportunity!

2 📦 What You Need to Get Started

You only need two things to start trading on GuessMarket:

📱

A Crypto Wallet

A free app that holds your money and connects to GuessMarket. We recommend GuessMarket Wallet (desktop) or Internet Money Wallet (mobile).

💵

USDC (Digital Dollars)

The currency used on GuessMarket. 1 USDC = $1 USD. Always.

💬 What's a Crypto Wallet?

Think of it like a digital bank account that you fully control. No bank can freeze it, no company can access it. It's just an app on your phone or browser that stores your crypto and lets you interact with apps like GuessMarket. Unlike a regular bank, there's no customer service - you're responsible for keeping your password (called a "seed phrase") safe.

💲 What's USDC?

USDC is a "stablecoin" - a type of cryptocurrency that's always worth exactly $1.00 USD. It's created by Circle (a major financial company) and backed by real US dollars. Using USDC means you don't have to worry about price swings like with Bitcoin or other crypto. When you're done trading, you can convert USDC back to regular dollars.

3 🔒 Setting Up Your Wallet

💻 Desktop Users: GuessMarket Wallet (Recommended)

Our official wallet built specifically for GuessMarket. It's secure, fast, has built-in swaps, and supports 50+ networks including PulseChain. Free for Chrome and Brave browsers.

📱 Mobile Users: Internet Money Wallet

Internet Money is a modern, user-friendly crypto wallet that supports all the blockchains GuessMarket uses. It's free, doesn't collect your personal data, and has a built-in browser for connecting to dApps on mobile.

🔒

No Data Collection

Your privacy is protected - no KYC required

🌐

Multi-Chain Support

Works with PulseChain, Ethereum, Base, Polygon, BSC & more

🔄

Built-in Swaps

Exchange tokens directly in the app

📱

Mobile & Desktop

GuessMarket Wallet for desktop, Internet Money for mobile

📥 Download Internet Money Wallet (Mobile)

🍎 iOS (iPhone/iPad) 🤖 Android

📝 Step-by-Step Setup

Download the App

Click one of the download links above based on your device. Install the app just like any other app from your app store.

Open the App & Create New Wallet

When you first open Internet Money, you'll see options to create a new wallet or import an existing one. Tap "Create New Wallet".

Write Down Your Seed Phrase (CRITICAL!)

The app will show you 12 random words. This is your seed phrase - the master key to your wallet.

⚠️ WRITE THESE WORDS DOWN ON PAPER!
Store them somewhere safe like a safe deposit box. Never take a screenshot. Never save them digitally. Never share them with anyone. If you lose these words and your phone breaks, your money is gone forever. No one can recover it for you.

Verify Your Seed Phrase

The app will ask you to confirm some of the words to make sure you wrote them down correctly. Select the correct words in order.

Set Up Security (Optional but Recommended)

Enable Face ID, fingerprint, or set a PIN code for extra security when opening the app.

You're Ready!

Your wallet is now set up. You'll see your wallet address (starts with "0x...") - this is like your account number that you can share to receive crypto.

💡 Tip: Your wallet already supports all the blockchains GuessMarket uses. You can switch networks inside the app by tapping the network name at the top.

⚠️ Security Rules - Never Break These!

  • NEVER share your seed phrase with anyone - Not even "support" or "help desk"
  • NEVER type your seed phrase into a website - Only in wallet apps
  • NEVER store your seed phrase digitally - No photos, no notes apps, no cloud storage
  • If anyone asks for your seed phrase, it's a SCAM - 100% of the time

4 💵 Funding Your Wallet

To trade on GuessMarket, you need USDC (digital dollars) in your wallet. Here's how to get some:

🏢 Option 1: Buy on Coinbase (Easiest for Beginners)

Coinbase is a trusted, regulated exchange where you can buy USDC with your bank account or debit card. It's the easiest way for US residents to get crypto.

  1. Download the Coinbase app or visit coinbase.com
  2. Create an account and verify your identity (required by law)
  3. Link your bank account or debit card
  4. Search for "USDC" and buy the amount you want
  5. Withdraw USDC to your Internet Money wallet address
💡 Pro tip: Coinbase charges no fees to buy USDC! But there may be network fees when you withdraw.

🔄 Option 2: Swap in Internet Money Wallet

If you already have other crypto (ETH, BTC, etc.), you can swap it for USDC directly inside the Internet Money wallet using their built-in swap feature.

🙋 Option 3: Receive from a Friend

Have a friend who uses crypto? They can send USDC directly to your wallet address. Just share your address (the one that starts with "0x...").

⚠️ Important: Choose the Right Network!

GuessMarket works on multiple blockchains. When you withdraw USDC from an exchange, make sure you select the correct network that matches where you want to trade:

  • Base - Recommended for beginners (low fees, fast)
  • Polygon - Very low fees
  • Ethereum - Most established but higher fees
  • PulseChain - Extremely low fees
  • BNB Smart Chain - Uses USDT instead of USDC

Sending to the wrong network can result in lost funds!

⛰️ Supported Blockchains

GuessMarket works on these networks (you can trade on any of them):

💗 PulseChain ⚖️ Ethereum 🔵 Base ⬡ Polygon 💛 BNB Smart Chain

💡 Which Network Should I Use?

For beginners, we recommend Base or Polygon - they have low transaction fees (usually less than $0.01) and fast confirmation times. Ethereum works great but has higher fees ($1-10+ per transaction). PulseChain has extremely low fees but requires bridging funds first.

5 🔗 Connecting to GuessMarket

Now that your wallet is funded, let's connect it to GuessMarket!

Visit GuessMarket

Go to guessmarket.com in your web browser.

📱 On mobile: Use the built-in browser inside Internet Money wallet for the best experience. Tap the browser/dApp icon in the wallet app.

Click "Connect Wallet"

You'll see a "Connect Wallet" button at the top of the page. Click it.

Select Your Wallet

A popup will appear showing available wallets. Select Internet Money or click "WalletConnect" if you're on mobile.

Approve the Connection

Your wallet app will ask you to approve the connection to GuessMarket. Review the request and tap "Connect" or "Approve".

🔒 This is safe! Connecting only lets the site see your wallet address and request transactions. It cannot access your funds without you approving each transaction.

You're Connected!

Once connected, you'll see your wallet address displayed at the top of the page, along with your balance. The button will change from "Connect Wallet" to showing your address.

✅ Connection is Secure

When you connect your wallet, GuessMarket can only:

  • See your wallet address (public information anyway)
  • See your token balances
  • Request transactions (you must approve each one)

GuessMarket CANNOT take money from your wallet without your explicit approval for each transaction.

6 📈 Making Your First Prediction

Time for the fun part - let's make your first trade!

Browse Markets

Go to the Markets page to see all available prediction markets. You can filter by category (Sports, Crypto, Politics, etc.) or search for specific topics.

Choose a Market

Click on a market that interests you. Read the question carefully and consider:

  • What is being predicted?
  • When does it end?
  • What are the current odds (YES % vs NO %)?

Decide: YES or NO?

Do you think the answer will be YES or NO?

If the current YES price is 40%, that means the crowd thinks there's a 40% chance it happens. If you think it's more likely, YES is a good buy. If you think it's less likely, buy NO.

Enter Your Amount

Enter how much USDC you want to spend. The interface will show you how many Guess Units you'll receive and your potential payout if you're right.

💡 Start small! Try with $1-5 for your first trade to get comfortable with the process.

Click "Buy YES" or "Buy NO"

Click the button to initiate the purchase.

Approve the Transaction

Your wallet will pop up asking you to confirm the transaction. You'll see:

  • The amount of USDC being spent
  • The estimated network fee (gas)

If everything looks correct, click "Confirm" in your wallet.

💡 First time? You may need to approve USDC spending first. This is a one-time approval that lets GuessMarket's smart contract use your USDC for trades.

Wait for Confirmation

The transaction will be processed on the blockchain. This usually takes 5-30 seconds depending on the network. You'll see a success message when it's complete!

Check Your Position

Your new position will appear in the "Your Position" section of the market page. You can also see all your positions on your Portfolio page.

🎉 Congratulations!

You just made your first prediction market trade! Now you wait for the market to resolve. If you're right, you'll be able to claim your winnings!

7 💻 Understanding the Interface

🎯 Market Card Elements

Each market card shows you important information at a glance:

Element What It Means
Question The prediction being made - will this happen or not?
YES Price (e.g., 65%) The crowd thinks there's a 65% chance the answer is YES
NO Price (e.g., 35%) The crowd thinks there's a 35% chance the answer is NO
Volume Total amount of money traded in this market
Liquidity How much money is available for trading (more = better prices)
End Date When trading closes and the market will be resolved

💰 Your Position

After you buy Guess Units, you'll see your position displayed:

  • Guess Units Owned: How many YES or NO Guess Units you have
  • Average Price: What you paid per Guess Unit on average
  • Current Value: What your Guess Units are worth right now
  • Potential Payout: Your estimated share of the winner's pot

📊 Price Changes

Prices change based on supply and demand:

  • When people buy YES, the YES price goes UP
  • When people buy NO, the NO price goes UP
  • YES + NO prices always equal approximately 100%

This means you can also sell your Guess Units before the market resolves if the price has moved in your favor!

8 🎉 Claiming Your Winnings

When a market resolves and you won, here's how to claim your prize:

Wait for Resolution

After the market's end date passes, the market creator or oracle will resolve the market by declaring the official outcome (YES, NO, or Invalid).

Check If You Won

Go to the market page or your Portfolio. If you held winning Guess Units, you'll see a "Claim" button.

Click "Claim Winnings"

Click the claim button to start the withdrawal process.

Approve the Transaction

Your wallet will ask you to confirm. The transaction will convert your winning Guess Units to USDC.

Receive Your USDC

Once confirmed, the USDC will be in your wallet! Your payout is your proportional share of all the losing bets.

💰 How Payouts Work

When a market resolves, all the money bet on the losing side gets distributed to winners:

  • Your payout = (Your winning Guess Units ÷ Total winning Guess Units) × Loser's pot
  • The more Guess Units you own and the fewer other winners, the bigger your share!
  • If you bought at a low price (e.g., 30%) and won, your return is much higher than if you bought at 70%

💡 Stay in the Game Until Resolution

To claim your share of the winner's pot, you must be holding your winning Guess Units when the market resolves. If you sell all your units before resolution, you exit the market entirely and won't participate in the final payout. You can sell some units to lock in partial profits, but keep at least some if you want to claim winnings!

💔 What If I Lost?

If the market resolved against your position (you held YES but NO won), your Guess Units become worthless. There's nothing to claim - the money you spent went to the people who bet correctly.

This is why prediction markets are exciting - real money is at stake, and correct predictions are rewarded!

9 🛡️ Security Tips

🚨 The Golden Rules of Crypto Security

Follow these rules and you'll stay safe:

Never Share Your Seed Phrase

Your 12-word seed phrase is the master key to your wallet. No legitimate service, support team, or website will EVER ask for it. Anyone who asks is trying to steal from you.

Double-Check URLs

Always verify you're on the real website. Bookmark guessmarket.com and always use your bookmark. Scammers create fake sites with similar URLs (like guessrnarket.com with an "rn" instead of "m").

Review Every Transaction

Before approving any transaction in your wallet, read what you're signing. Make sure the amount and destination look correct.

Start Small

When trying anything new, start with a small amount you can afford to lose. Get comfortable with the process before trading larger amounts.

Keep Your Seed Phrase Offline

Write it on paper and store it securely (like a safe or safety deposit box). Never store it in a notes app, email, cloud storage, or take a photo of it.

👥 Common Scams to Avoid

  • "Support" DMs: Real support never DMs you first
  • "Validate your wallet": Never enter your seed phrase on any website
  • "Free crypto" offers: If it seems too good to be true, it is
  • Fake wallet apps: Only download from official links
  • "Send crypto to receive more": This is always a scam

10 📚 Glossary of Terms

Crypto has a lot of jargon. Here's what the most common terms mean:

Wallet
An app that stores your cryptocurrency and lets you interact with blockchain applications. Think of it as your crypto bank account that you fully control.
Seed Phrase (Recovery Phrase)
12 or 24 random words that can restore your wallet if you lose your device. This is the master key to your crypto - never share it with anyone!
USDC
A stablecoin (cryptocurrency) pegged to the US Dollar. 1 USDC always equals $1 USD. It's what you use to trade on GuessMarket.
Blockchain
A decentralized digital ledger that records all transactions. Think of it as a public database that no single company controls.
Network / Chain
Different blockchains like Ethereum, Base, Polygon, etc. Each is a separate system. GuessMarket works on multiple networks.
Gas Fee
A small fee paid to process your transaction on the blockchain. Like a processing fee. Varies by network (Base and Polygon are cheap, Ethereum is more expensive).
Smart Contract
Code that runs on the blockchain and automatically executes agreements. GuessMarket's smart contracts handle all trading and payouts automatically.
dApp (Decentralized App)
An application that runs on blockchain smart contracts instead of traditional servers. GuessMarket is a dApp.
Connect Wallet
The process of linking your wallet to a dApp so it can request transactions. The site can see your address but can't take money without your approval.
Transaction / TX
Any action on the blockchain (sending crypto, buying Guess Units, claiming winnings). Each transaction requires a gas fee.
Liquidity
The amount of money available in a market for trading. More liquidity = better prices and easier trading.
LP (Liquidity Provider)
Someone who adds money to a market to enable trading. LPs earn fees from trades.
Slippage
The difference between expected price and actual price when trading. Larger trades in low-liquidity markets have more slippage.
Resolution
When a market is closed and the outcome (YES, NO, or Invalid) is declared, allowing winners to claim their payout.

11 ❓ Frequently Asked Questions

GuessMarket is a decentralized application running on public blockchains. It operates without a central authority. Users are responsible for complying with their local laws. The platform doesn't collect personal information or restrict access based on location.

Yes. Prediction markets involve risk. If you buy YES Guess Units and NO wins (or vice versa), you lose the money you spent on those Guess Units. Never trade more than you can afford to lose. Start small while you're learning.

There's no hard minimum, but you need enough to cover the gas fee plus your trade. You could trade with as little as $1, but keep in mind gas fees vary by network. On Base or Polygon, fees are often less than $0.01. On Ethereum, they can be $1-10+.

After the market's end date, the market creator needs to resolve it (declare the outcome). This usually happens within a few hours to a few days. Once resolved, you can claim immediately.

Yes! You can sell your Guess Units anytime before the market closes. If the price has moved in your favor, you can lock in profit early. If it moved against you, you might sell at a loss to recover some of your investment rather than risk losing everything.

Markets can be resolved as "Invalid" if there's a dispute or the question was ambiguous. In that case, everyone gets their money back proportionally. Choose markets with clear, unambiguous questions to minimize this risk.

This is a security feature of the blockchain. Before a smart contract can use your tokens, you must explicitly approve it. This is a one-time approval per token per contract. It protects you because contracts can only access tokens you've specifically approved.

Yes! GuessMarket works with any EVM-compatible wallet including MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, Trust Wallet, Rainbow, and more. We recommend GuessMarket Wallet for desktop (Chrome/Brave) and Internet Money Wallet for mobile, but use whatever you're comfortable with.

GuessMarket charges a 2% fee on trades. This fee is split between liquidity providers (75%) and the platform (25%). There's also a small network gas fee for each transaction, which varies by blockchain (cheapest on Base and Polygon).

Yes! Anyone can create a prediction market on GuessMarket. Visit the Create Market page, connect your wallet, and submit your question. There's a $10 USDC fee to create a market.

🎯 Ready to Start Trading?

You now have all the knowledge you need. Start with a small trade, get comfortable with the process, and have fun making predictions!

Browse Markets Create a Market