How It Works - GuessMarket

👛 Recommended Wallets

To use GuessMarket, you'll need a Web3 wallet. Here are three wallets that work great with our platform:

💎

GuessMarket Wallet

Our official wallet built specifically for GuessMarket. Secure, fast, with built-in swaps and support for 50+ networks including PulseChain. Free for Chrome and Brave browsers.

Get GuessMarket Wallet

💜

Internet Money Wallet

A user-friendly mobile wallet with excellent multi-chain support. Perfect for beginners and supports all 5 blockchains that GuessMarket uses.

Get Internet Money Wallet

🦊

MetaMask

The most popular Web3 wallet with browser extension and mobile app. Trusted by millions of users worldwide for DeFi and NFTs.

Get MetaMask

📱 Mobile Tip

On mobile, always use the built-in browser inside your wallet app to visit guessmarket.com. This allows the app to connect seamlessly. Regular browsers like Chrome or Safari can't detect your wallet.

🎯 What is GuessMarket?

GuessMarket is a decentralized prediction market platform built on popular blockchains. Make predictions on real-world events, trade units based on your beliefs, and earn rewards when you're right. It's like the stock market, but for predicting the future!

📈 Trade Your Predictions

Buy YES units if you think something will happen, or NO units if you think it won't. Prices reflect the crowd's probability estimate.

💰 Earn When You're Right

If your prediction is correct, you claim your share of the prize pool! The more units you own relative to other winners, the bigger your payout. Wrong predictions are worth $0 - their money goes to the winners.

🔒 Fully Decentralized

All trades happen on-chain via smart contracts. No middlemen, no custody of your funds. You're always in control of your assets.

⛓️ Trade on 5 Blockchains

GuessMarket is now truly multi-chain! Browse markets from all supported blockchains in one unified view, filter by your favorite chain, and trade wherever the action is. Your wallet automatically prompts you to switch networks when needed.

🔵

Base

Coinbase's Layer 2

Built and backed by Coinbase
Ethereum L2 with rollup security
Easy onboarding directly from Coinbase app
Rapidly growing DeFi & social ecosystem
Native USDC with full Circle support

Chain ID: 8453 • Gas: ETH

💛

BNB Smart Chain

Binance Ecosystem

Largest active user base in crypto
3-second blocks with low fees
Direct fiat onramps via Binance exchange
Uses USDT (Tether) - the most traded stablecoin
PancakeSwap and massive DeFi ecosystem

Chain ID: 56 • Gas: BNB

⟠

Ethereum

The Original Blockchain

Maximum security & decentralization
Deepest liquidity in all of DeFi
Native Circle USDC - the gold standard
Where smart contracts were born
Higher gas fees but unmatched security

Chain ID: 1 • Gas: ETH

⬡

Polygon

The Scaling Pioneer

Battle-tested with billions in TVL
2-second block times for instant trades
Native USDC with Circle support
Massive ecosystem: Aave, Uniswap, OpenSea
Easy bridging from Ethereum via polygon.technology

Chain ID: 137 • Gas: MATIC

💓

PulseChain

Fast & Cheap

Ultra-low gas fees (fractions of a cent)
Lightning-fast 10-second blocks
Full Ethereum fork - all your favorite tools work
Active DeFi community with PulseX DEX
Bridge from Ethereum at bridge.pulsechain.com

Chain ID: 369 • Gas: PLS

🔗 Seamless Chain Switching

When you click on a market from a different blockchain, GuessMarket automatically detects the mismatch and shows a "Switch Network" button. One click prompts your wallet to switch chains - no manual network configuration needed! If the chain isn't in your wallet yet, we'll help you add it automatically.

🌐

Unified Market View

See ALL markets from ALL chains in one place. Chain badges show you which blockchain each market lives on.

🔍

Filter by Chain

Use the chain dropdown to show only markets from your preferred blockchain. Perfect for chain-specific trading.

💼

Multi-Chain Portfolio

Your portfolio shows positions with chain indicators. Switch networks to manage positions on different chains.

🚀 Getting Started

Connect Your Wallet

Click the "Connect Wallet" button and connect your Web3 wallet. Three wallets that work great with GuessMarket are GuessMarket Wallet, Internet Money Wallet, and MetaMask. GuessMarket supports 5 blockchains: Base, BNB Smart Chain, Ethereum, Polygon, and PulseChain. Connect on any chain you prefer!

Get USDC (or USDT) and Gas Tokens

You'll need a stablecoin to trade: USDC on Base/Ethereum/Polygon/PulseChain, or USDT on BNB Smart Chain. Plus native tokens for gas (ETH, MATIC, BNB, or PLS depending on your chain). Each chain has its own DEXes and bridges to acquire tokens.

Browse Markets from All Chains

Explore the Markets page to see predictions from all 5 blockchains in one view! Look for the chain badge (🔵💛⟠⬡💓) on each market. Use the chain filter dropdown to show only markets from your preferred network.

Start Trading!

Click on any market to view details. If it's on a different chain, you'll see a "Switch Network" button -one click and your wallet handles the rest. Then buy YES or NO units based on your prediction!

⚡ Speed Note

Trading is instant - your buys and sells confirm in seconds on most chains. However, newly created markets may take a few minutes to appear on the main Markets page while the system indexes them. Don't worry, your market is live on-chain immediately!

💰 Stablecoins by Chain

Each blockchain uses its own stablecoin for trading. Always verify you're using the correct contract address to avoid scams!

🔵 Base - USDC (Circle)


                        0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913

💛 BNB Smart Chain - USDT (Tether)


                        0x55d398326f99059fF775485246999027B3197955

⟠ Ethereum - USDC (Circle)


                        0xA0b86991c6218b36c1d19D4a2e9Eb0cE3606eB48

⬡ Polygon - USDC (Circle)


                        0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359

💓 PulseChain - USDC (Bridged from Ethereum)


                        0x15D38573d2feeb82e7ad5187aB8c1D52810B1f07

Obtained via bridge.pulsechain.com

⚠️ Protect Yourself from Scams

Before adding any token to your wallet, always verify the contract address by clicking the links above to view them on official block explorers. Scammers create fake tokens with similar names - the contract address is the only way to confirm you have the real token!

💸 How Trading Works

Understanding the Percentages

Each market shows YES and NO percentages that represent the crowd's estimated probability. If YES shows 70%, the market thinks there's a 70% chance the event will happen. When you buy, you get fewer units for popular outcomes (expensive) and more units for unpopular outcomes (cheap) - that's how the odds work in your favor when you're contrarian and right!

🟢 Buying Units

Enter the amount of USDC/USDT you want to spend, select YES or NO, and confirm the transaction. You'll see exactly how many units you'll receive before confirming.

🔴 Selling Units

Own units you want to sell? Enter the number of units, and you'll see how much USDC/USDT you'll receive. Sell anytime the market is active to lock in profits or cut losses.

💡 Pro Tip: Price Impact

Large trades relative to the pool's liquidity will move the percentages more. The "Price Impact" shown before you trade helps you understand how much your trade will shift the market odds. Lower liquidity pools have higher price impact - your trade has more influence!

🏆 How Payouts Work

When a market resolves, winners split the prize pool proportionally based on their unit ownership:

Outcome	YES Units	NO Units
YES wins	💰 Split the pool	Worthless
NO wins	Worthless	💰 Split the pool
Invalid	Refunded	Refunded

How it works: Your payout = (your units ÷ total winning units) × prize pool. If you hold 10% of all winning units, you get 10% of the pool. The losers' money funds the winners' payouts!

Pro tip: Buy units when the price is low (undervalued outcome) - you'll own more units for the same money, meaning a bigger slice of the pie if you're right.

💡 Important: To claim your share of the winner's pot, you must hold your winning units when the market resolves. If you sell all your units before resolution, you exit the market and won't participate in the final payout distribution.

🧮 The Elegant Math Behind GuessMarket

GuessMarket uses a Constant-Product AMM (Automated Market Maker) - the same battle-tested model that powers Uniswap and other leading DeFi protocols. It's mathematically elegant and ensures fair, manipulation-resistant pricing.

The Core Formulas

Constant Product: k = YES_reserve × NO_reserve
YES Price: P_yes = NO_reserve ÷ (YES_reserve + NO_reserve)
NO Price: P_no = YES_reserve ÷ (YES_reserve + NO_reserve)
Winner Payout: (Your Units ÷ Total Winning Units) × Pool

The magic is in k - the product of reserves that stays constant during trades. When you buy YES units, YES reserves decrease and NO reserves increase, automatically moving the price. Bigger trades = bigger price impact. This creates natural market equilibrium.

✅

Self-Balancing Prices

The AMM automatically adjusts prices based on demand. Buy pressure increases price, sell pressure decreases it. No order books, no counterparty needed.

💪

LP Tracking & Fee Sharing

Liquidity provider deposits are tracked separately from trader positions. LPs earn 75% of all trading fees generated by their pool. Withdrawal amounts are calculated proportionally based on your share of the pool.

⚖️

True Zero-Sum Trading

Every dollar won comes from a dollar lost by other traders. Transparent 2% fees (split between LPs and platform) - no hidden costs, no complex collateral.

📊 How the AMM Works in Practice

Imagine a market starts 50/50 with equal YES and NO reserves. Here's what happens when you trade:

You buy YES → NO reserves increase, YES reserves decrease → YES price rises
You sell YES → YES reserves increase, NO reserves decrease → YES price falls
Large trades have higher price impact than small trades
Arbitrageurs keep prices aligned with true probability

This constant-product formula has been battle-tested with billions of dollars in DeFi. It's the same math that powers Uniswap, SushiSwap, and hundreds of other protocols.

"The constant-product formula: simple enough to fit in a tweet, powerful enough to run a trillion-dollar industry."

GuessMarket brings this proven DeFi technology to prediction markets.

🛡️ Your Safety Matters

GuessMarket was built with user security as the top priority. Here's how the platform protects you:

🛡️

Sandwich Attack Protection

The smart slippage system protects you from MEV bots that try to front-run your trades. Your transaction will revert if the price moves against you.

⚙️

Adjustable Slippage

Auto-slippage adjusts based on your trade size, or set your own custom tolerance. Click the gear icon when trading to customize.

🔒

Exact Approval Limits

The platform only requests approval for the exact USDC/USDT amount you're trading - never unlimited access. Your funds stay safe even if something goes wrong.

🕑

Time-Locked Admin Functions

Critical changes require a 7-day waiting period. No instant rug pulls possible. Emergency functions have built-in delays for your protection.

✅ Minimum Received Guarantee

Before every trade, you'll see the minimum units/stablecoins you're guaranteed to receive. If market conditions change and you'd get less than this amount, your transaction automatically cancels - protecting you from unexpected losses.

💻 Desktop Users

For desktop, we recommend GuessMarket Wallet - our official wallet with built-in swaps, 50+ networks, and optimized for GuessMarket. Works on Chrome and Brave browsers.

📱 Mobile Users

To connect your wallet on mobile, use the built-in browser inside your wallet app. We recommend Internet Money Wallet or MetaMask - both work great with GuessMarket! Navigate to guessmarket.com from within your wallet's browser - this allows the app to detect your wallet and connect seamlessly. Regular mobile browsers (Chrome, Safari) cannot detect wallet apps directly.

⚠️

Flagged Market Warnings

If you see a red warning banner on a market page, it means that market has been flagged by our moderation team. Reasons include spam, inappropriate content, misleading information, unverifiable outcomes, or potentially illegal activity. Trade at your own risk on flagged markets. Flagged markets are hidden from the main listings but remain accessible via direct link since they exist on-chain.

💡 Create Your Own Markets

Don't see a market you want to trade on? Create it yourself! Anyone can launch a prediction market on GuessMarket.

How to Create a Market

Head to the Create Market page, fill in your question, set your end date, and pay the $10 USDC/USDT creation fee. Your market goes live on-chain immediately!

🏅

Sports & Games

Will your team win the championship? Create a market and let fans trade on the outcome. Great for playoffs, tournaments, and big matchups.

🌎

World Events

Elections, policy decisions, tech announcements - if it has a clear yes/no outcome, you can create a market for it.

🤖

Get AI Help

Stuck for ideas? Use ChatGPT, Claude, or your favorite AI to brainstorm interesting market questions that people would want to trade on.

⚠️ Important: Set Your End Date Correctly

Your market's end date must be BEFORE the event outcome is known. For example, if you're creating a market about a football game on Sunday at 4pm, set the market to end before kickoff (like Saturday night or Sunday morning). This ensures trading stops before the result is known, and the market can be resolved fairly afterward.

💰 Why the $10 Fee?

The market creation fee prevents spam and ensures only serious, well-thought-out markets get created. This keeps the platform clean and makes it easier for traders to find quality markets worth trading on.

💧 Make Your Market Tradeable

After creating your market, add at least $10 in liquidity to enable trading. Without liquidity, nobody can buy or sell units! As the liquidity provider for your own market, you'll earn a share of all trading fees generated. Create a popular market, seed it with liquidity, and watch your LP earnings grow as others trade on your prediction!

🏁 Race! (The Game)

Prediction markets reimagined as exciting head-to-head races! Same proven system, completely different experience. Instead of betting on external events, the trading itself IS the game. Pick your team and compete!

🏁

RED vs BLUE

Two teams enter. One team wins. The team with the higher percentage when the clock hits zero takes it all!

🏁

RED Team = YES

Buy RED Guess Units to join the RED team. If RED has the higher percentage when the race ends, RED team members split the prize pool!

🏁

BLUE Team = NO

Buy BLUE Guess Units to join the BLUE team. If BLUE has the higher percentage when the race ends, BLUE team members split the prize pool!

⏱️ How a Race Works

Race is beautifully simple:

Race Starts

A race begins at 50/50 - both teams start equal. The countdown timer shows how long until the race ends.

Teams Trade

Players buy Guess Units in their chosen team. Each purchase moves the percentages - buying RED increases RED's percentage and decreases BLUE's (and vice versa).

Intensity Builds

As the clock winds down, the action heats up! Last-minute trades can swing the lead. Watch the percentages battle it out!

Clock Hits Zero

Trading stops instantly. The team with the higher percentage at that exact moment WINS!

Winners Collect

Winning team members claim their share of the prize pool proportionally. Losing Guess Units are worth $0.

💰 Early Believers Win Bigger!

Here's the key strategy: buying early at low prices means more Guess Units for your money. If you buy RED at 30% and RED wins, you own a larger share of the winning pot! But if you buy at 80%, you get fewer units and a smaller payout. The early believers who take the risk get the biggest rewards.

⚡

Fast & Furious

Races can be as short as 30 minutes or last for days. Short races are intense bursts of trading action!

👥

Pure Competition

No external events to predict - it's just your team vs their team. Rally your friends to join your side!

📈

Same Proven System

Race uses the exact same smart contracts and AMM math as regular markets. Battle-tested and secure.

💰

LP Paradise

Lots of trades in a short time = lots of fees! Liquidity providers love races for the high fee generation.

💡 The Slippage Defense

Worried about whales flipping the race at the last second? Don't be! Low liquidity pools have high slippage - a whale trying to dump $500 in the final seconds would pay massive slippage (averaging 85%+ per share) and only get ~1.15x return if they win. Meanwhile, early believers who bought at 50-60% get 1.6-2x returns. The math punishes late whales and rewards early conviction!

🎯 Race vs Normal Markets

Aspect	Normal Market	Race
Question	"Will X happen?"	"Will RED or BLUE win?"
Winner Decided By	External real-world event	Which team has higher % at end
Duration	Days to months	30 mins to days
What You're Betting On	Being RIGHT about the future	Being on the WINNING side
Payout System	Same	Same
Fee Structure	Same	Same

🏁 View Active Races

💧 Become a Liquidity Provider

What is Liquidity Providing?

Liquidity Providers (LPs) deposit USDC/USDT into markets to enable trading. In return, you earn a share of ALL trading fees generated by that market. It's like being the house in a casino - you earn from every bet made!

💰

Earn Trading Fees

Every trade pays a 2% fee, and LPs receive 75% of it (1.5%). Your share is proportional to your pool contribution.

📈

Passive Income

Once you add liquidity, you earn automatically. No need to actively trade -just sit back and collect fees from other traders.

🔓

Withdraw Anytime

Your liquidity isn't locked. Remove your funds whenever you want (while the market is active) along with any fees you've earned.

💪 LP Tracking & Fees

The smart contract tracks your LP deposits separately from trader positions. LPs earn 75% of all trading fees. Withdrawal amounts are calculated proportionally based on your share of the pool.

💲 Fee Structure

Transparent, competitive fees that keep the platform running:

Action	Fee	Where It Goes
Buying Units	2%	75% to LPs, 25% to platform
Selling Units	2%	75% to LPs, 25% to platform
Creating a Market	$10 USDC/USDT	Spam prevention
Adding Liquidity	Free	-
Removing Liquidity	Free	-
Claiming Winnings	Free	-

💰 Why LPs Get 75% of Fees

Liquidity providers are the backbone of the platform. That's why 75% of all trading fees go directly to LPs -one of the highest LP reward rates in DeFi. The more liquidity you provide, the more you earn!

🎉 No Impermanent Loss!

Unlike traditional DeFi liquidity pools, GuessMarket LPs don't suffer from impermanent loss (also called divergent loss). You're only providing stablecoins (USDC or USDT) - there's no volatile token pair that can move against you. Your principal is protected, and you get your full liquidity back plus your share of all trading fees. It's the best of both worlds: earn passive income without the typical LP risks!

* Network gas fees apply to all transactions. These go to blockchain validators, not GuessMarket.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

What happens when a market resolves?

When the event outcome is known, the oracle resolves the market as YES, NO, or INVALID. Winners split the prize pool proportionally based on how many winning units they hold. Losing units become worthless. If resolved INVALID, all traders get refunded proportionally.

Can I lose more than I lay out?

No! The maximum you can lose is the amount you paid for units. There's no leverage, no margin calls, and no hidden fees. What you see is what you get.

How do I know the market will be resolved fairly?

Markets can only be resolved by authorized oracles after the event end date. The resolution is recorded on-chain and cannot be changed once finalized. For disputed resolutions, there is an appeal process.

What stablecoins are used?

GuessMarket uses stablecoins pegged to the US Dollar so your positions maintain consistent value. Most chains use USDC (Circle's stablecoin), while BNB Smart Chain uses USDT (Tether). Each blockchain has its own version of these stablecoins.

Why did my transaction fail?

Most failures are due to: (1) Slippage protection - the price moved too much; try again or increase slippage tolerance. (2) Insufficient gas - make sure you have native tokens for network fees (BNB, ETH, MATIC, or PLS depending on your chain). (3) Market ended - you can't trade after the end time.

Is GuessMarket audited?

The smart contracts use battle-tested OpenZeppelin libraries and have been meticulously reviewed by professionals. The bug bounty program provides additional security coverage.

💡 Quick Tips for Success

🎯 Start Small

New to prediction markets? Start with small amounts while you learn how prices move and markets behave.

📊 Watch the Odds

If you think YES is more likely than the current price suggests, that's your opportunity. Buy low, sell high!

💰 Consider LP'ing

Not sure which way a market will go? Provide liquidity instead and earn fees from traders on both sides.

⏱️ Time Your Exit

You don't have to wait for resolution. If your units increase in value, you can sell early to lock in profits.

📣 Share Markets with Friends

Found an interesting market? Share it with your friends, followers, and community! Every market on GuessMarket has a share button that makes spreading the word easy.

🔗

Copy Link

Instantly copy the market URL to share in messages, emails, Discord servers, or anywhere you communicate online.

📲

QR Codes

Every share modal generates a QR code. Perfect for Instagram posts, flyers, presentations, or in-person events!

🌐

Social Sharing

One-click sharing to X (Twitter), Telegram, and WhatsApp. Mobile users get their device's native share menu too.

📸 How to Share

Look for the share icon (an arrow pointing up) on any market card or market page. Click it to open the share modal where you can:

Copy the direct market link with one click
Download or screenshot the QR code for Instagram, TikTok, or print
Share directly to X, Telegram, or WhatsApp
Use your phone's native share sheet on mobile devices

💡 Pro Tip: Share Your Positions!

Share buttons also appear on your Portfolio page next to each position you hold. Show your friends what you're predicting and invite them to join the action!

📚 Market Archive

Looking for markets that have already ended? All resolved markets are preserved in the Market Archive.

📋 Find Completed Markets

When a market reaches its end date and gets resolved (YES, NO, or INVALID), it moves from the active Markets page to the Market Archive. There you can:

Review past predictions - See how markets resolved and what the final odds were
Claim uncollected winnings - If you won but haven't claimed yet, you can still do so from the archive
Withdraw LP liquidity - Remove your liquidity from resolved markets
Learn from history - Study past market behavior to improve your future predictions

🔎 Don't Miss Your Winnings!

If you participated in a market that has ended, check the Market Archive to claim any winnings you may have. Your positions don't expire - you can claim anytime, even months after resolution!

How GuessMarket Works